Survey of Cereal Areas and Volumes, 1 April 2021

The objective of this AIMI survey of New Zealand (NZ) cereal growers was to determine, as at April 1, 2021:

The size of the 2021 NZ harvest of wheat, barley and oats. The sales channels, storage status and unsold amount of the 2021 NZ harvest. The tonnages of carry-over stocks on farms from the 2020 NZ harvest. NZ sowings and sowing intentions of wheat, barley and oats (both milling/malting and feed) for the autumn and winter of 2021.

Key points:
Rainfall for the 2020-21 season was below average across many regions in New Zealand. Overall, yields were down 3% compared to last season (averaged over all six crops).

Also, less hectares were harvested than last season (3% down), and the net result was a 6% decrease in total tonnage compared to last season.

On the survey farms, the 2021 harvests of milling wheat and malting barley were 100% completed by 1 April, with feed wheat harvest 99.9% complete and feed barley harvest 95% complete.

The harvests of milling oats and feed oats were 71% and 73% complete, respectively, by 1 April.

Carry-over stocks (both sold and unsold) of feed wheat and feed barley are low. Unsold stocks on hand of last year’s feed wheat and feed barley crops were 1.6% and 0.3% of the 2020 harvest tonnages, respectively.

Stocks of unsold feed wheat from the current harvest are down 26% on unsold stocks at this time last year. Unsold stocks of feed barley are down 24% as compared to this time last year, and unsold stocks of milling wheat are down 18%.

Soil moisture levels remain low heading into winter and growers are hoping for rain to improve soil levels and recharge aquifers for the season ahead.

Autumn/winter sowings of feed wheat are predicted to be similar (down by 300 hectares) to predicted sowings a year ago, with feed barley also similar (up by 100 ha).

Milling wheat autumn/winter sowings are predicted to be down by 1,800 ha, malting barley down 2,400 ha, milling oats down 130 ha, and feed oats up 40 ha. However, these predictions are based mostly on intentions as over all six crops, only 9% had been sown by 1 April 2021.