Analysis

Julian Heyes, Head of School of Food and Advanced Technology@ISHS_CMFV, Massey University According to the United Nations, food shortages are a threat due to climate change. Are food shortages a major threat to New Zealand due to climate change? Climate change is altering conditions that sustain food production, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Recent research evaluated the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries globally. Modelling of those impacts under a business-as-usual carbon emission scenario suggested about 90% of the world’s population – most of whom live in the least developed countries – will experience reductions in food production this century. New Zealanders are fortunate to live in a part of the world blessed with relatively fertile soils, adequate water supplies and mild temperatures. This gives us a comparative advantage for agriculture and horticulture over many other countries, including our main trading partner, Australia. New Zealand produces more than enough food for its population. Exports exceed local consumption, and climate-change induced food shortages should not be an imminent risk for New Zealand. But behind every general statement like this lies some rather more troubling detail. Overcoming domestic challenges As residents of a developed country, we are accustomed to accessing the world’s resources through supermarkets. New Zealanders take for granted that most foods (even those we do not produce, like rice or bananas) will be available all year round. Asparagus, new potatoes and strawberries are examples of foods New Zealanders may expect to see only at particular times of the year, but if apples or kiwifruit are out of stock, people usually complain. Our expectations are based on imports of products when they are out of season in New Zealand. The availability of those imports may be seriously compromised by climate change. A recent Ministry for the […]

– Jack Stenhouse, NZTE Trade Commissioner for South Korea. The eleventh largest economy in the world, the Republic of Korea, is home to some technology and manufacturing giants – names we all recognise, like Samsung, Hyundai, LG and Daewoo. Korea’s economic success is founded on access to world markets, and that’s great news for New Zealand exporters. While it’s still early days, the Korea-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement signed in 2015 looks to be delivering on its promise to boost business and strengthen ties between our two countries. This relationship has been reinforced by President Moon Jae-In’s visit to New Zealand this week. J-Nomics and the rise of consumer spending Korea is our fifth largest goods export market, and two-way trade recently surpassed NZ$4 billion in value. Since the New Zealand-Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA) came into force three years ago, two-thirds of our exports now enter Korea duty free, a figure that will eventually reach 98 percent. This softening of Korea’s traditionally protective trade policies translates to further opportunities for Kiwi exporters, and Korea’s focus on lifting wages and creating jobs brings more good news. President Moon Jae-In’s economic reforms, dubbed ‘J-Nomics’ aim to raise wages among lower and middle income earners, and increase domestic consumer spending. This, combined with a solid growth outlook, means Korea remains a reliable market for New Zealand businesses. While forestry products account for a decent amount of our exports to Korea (to the tune of almost NZ$500 million), it’s an even more attractive and significant market for our food and beverage exporters, where the FTA has seen trade in the F&B sector increase by 35 percent to top NZ$700 million. We’re winning because Korean consumers value our reputation for safe, reliable and premium products, but there’s definitely room for ongoing marketing investment to increase consumer […]

The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) and Plant & Food Research have released their joint report: The evolution of plant protein – assessing consumer response. The report was commissioned to assess consumer responses to protein and highlight the potential impacts to the New Zealand agricultural industry. New Zealand’s social, environmental, and economic well-being is linked to New Zealand’s ability to supply the rest of the world with protein. New Zealand’s animal-based protein export revenue alone accounts for 60% of New Zealand’s total primary exports. This demand will grow as the global population is set to increase to 8.1 billion by 2025. “This is the very first exploratory piece of work MPI has done in this area. The report explores how consumers have become more aware of the long-term impacts of food production and signals change for traditional animal protein producers. “The findings will inform our work programme to support primary sector resilience in the face of these impacts and changing consumer habits. “The report also includes opportunities to create value through a point of difference for traditional New Zealand products,” says Jarred Mair, acting deputy director-general for policy and trade. “In order for New Zealand to retain a competitive edge in our primary exports, we want to ensure we are looking ahead at what the future consumer might demand in our products and what opportunities are available for our sector,” says Dr Jocelyn Eason of Plant & Food Research. To assess where markets are heading in the next 5 years the report analysed consumer responses to plant-based proteins released in the United States and consumer attitudes to proteins in China. Our research has shown that wealthy western economies such as the US will require an innovative product that meets consumer needs. The key findings of the report include: Progress towards new […]

New Zealand’s land-based primary industries need to get ready for more, and more serious, crop disease as climate change causes more and longer droughts, according to new research. In the journal Australasian Plant Pathology, the authors say that climate change is expected to bring more droughts in many parts of New Zealand, and more droughts are “likely to increase the severity of a wide range of diseases affecting the plant-based productive sectors”. Scientists from the Bio-Protection Research Centre, Scion, Lincoln University, AUT University, Landcare Research, and the University of Auckland analysed the potential impact of climate-change-induced drought on several commercial plants and their diseases. They found that in most instances “increased drought is expected to increase disease expression”. The probable negative effects of drought include “…a predisposition of hosts to infection through general weakening and/or suppressed disease resistance”. More frequent and more severe droughts could also lead to “emergence of enhanced or new diseases of plants that can reduce primary production”. “New plant disease pressures are expected to occur… with potentially devastating impacts for New Zealand’s productive sectors,” the authors said. But the news is not all bad. “Drought may reduce the severity of some diseases, such as Sclerotina rot of kiwifruit and red needle cast (RNC) of radiata pine,” they said. And in some cases it could “activate systemic defence mechanisms resulting in increased resistance to infection”. In an extended case study the authors said that the effects of increased drought on New Zealand’s Pinus radiata industry would depend on many factors, including whether drought happened early or late in the season. “There is urgent need to study the impacts of the different levels of drought and different levels of RNC severity to understand the thresholds at which radiata pine plantations would still accomplish their economic and ecological roles.” […]